NBA Season Preview 2012-2013
Well folks we made it, the NBA season starts in 4 days and I'm filled with excitement. The excitement and build up to this season has been as big as it's ever been. With so many questions this season that need to be answered I felt that there were too many to cover them all so I'll just go through 10. At the end I will include my preliminary playoff predictions.
1.
Can the Heat repeat as NBA Champions?: The Miami Heat come into this season as overwhelming favorites to win the championship this year. In the annual NBA GM survey 21 out of the 30 GMs picked the Heat as favorites to win it all. It really shouldn't surprise anyone that the Heat are the favorites to win it. The Heat have arguably the best basketball player since a guy named Jordan retired, the 2nd best SG in the game and an all star pf/c. One of the things that makes the Heat even more dangerous than last year is their newfound versatility. Now while last year wasn't the first year Lebron played the 4 on a regular basis but it was the first tim he played exceptionally well on the low block. While playing the 4 last year Lebron had an astonishing 37.1 PER while averaging 39 points and 12 rebs(All of these stats are per 48 minutes). Now he only played the power forward 24% of the time he was on the court so it's a small sample size but we'll get a much bigger sample size this year. Not only do the Heat have a great starting lineup they bolstered their bench by signing perhaps the greatest 3pt shooter ever Ray Allen. The Heat should be the favorites to not only win a much improved Eastern Conference but win the title as I don't think anyone in the league other than the Thunder or Celtics matches up with them that well and they just got beat by Miami last year. So if the Heat are blessed with health this year expect them to coast through the regular season even in a tougher conference than last season.
2.
Is OKC still the team to beat out west?: With all the big acquisitons the Lakers made this offseason it seems like(at least in the eyes of the media) that the potential "Thunder Dynasty" may be put on hold for a year or two. I don't think that's true. Oklahoma City is coming off a crushing defeat in the NBA Finals to the Heat. Now while the only meaningful acquisition OKC made was the drafting of Baylor Forward Perry Jones III, they're getting back backup point guard Eric Maynor which is a huge lift for them. Lets not also forget that they're 4 best players are all coming off of a summer in which they all competed in the olympics in which 3 of them won Gold(Durant,Westbrook and Harden) and the other won silver(Ibaka). The Thunder have the best scorer in the world(Durant),the most or one of the most explosive and atheletic players in the league(Westbrook),the best bench player in the league(Harden) and one of the most emphatic shot blockers we've seen since Mt.Mutumbo(Ibaka). Now the Thunder do play in a very improved divisions with some teams who will make some noise so they might struggle in the regular season in terms of playoff seeding, but in the playoffs if I had to bet a large amount of money on the team I think would make the finals it'd be the Thunder.
3.
Are the Lakers as good as we think they're?: As a bitter Celtics fan it's hard for me to write about the Lakers being one of the top contenders........AGAIN! It just seems like these guys never go away. I got to give a lot of credit to Mitch Kupchak(Lakers GM) he's always keeping this team in title contention without really having to completely having to rebuild. Now a starting lineup of Nash-Kobe-MWP-Gasol-Howard looks very scary and in the one preseason game they played together for streches it looked like the best starting lineup in the league. While the starters did not disappoint the same can't be said about the bench. The Lakers's bench was outscored 57-18(yes you read that right). Now while the bulk of those points came from Marcus Thorton and Aaron Brooks(Two guys worthy of starting) allowing the Kings bench to outscore your bench by 39 points is unacceptable. Now some chemistry issues have to be worked on but the bench NEEDS to be fixed if they're to beat OKC or any other western confernce team in a potential playoff matchup. Now back to the starters. With the Lakers instituting a new offensive scheme known as the "Princeton Offense" some headaches and issues will arise over the course of this season as it's a brand new team trying to intergrate a brand new offense. Defensively with Mike Brown coaching them they'll be even better than before since they added one of the best defensive players of this generation. I really want to say that Kobe will be different this season but it's Kobe and anybody can tell you this guy will not relinquish his role as LA's alpha dog even if he's the 2nd best player on his team now. The Lakers are going o be very good, even great but it's going to take some time to get used to each other and their starters are going to have to log extreme minutes if that bench doesn't improve.
4.
Can Boston compete with Miami?: One number can describe the Celtics goals for this upcoming season....18. To get to that sacred number the Celtics are most likely going to have to get through Miami as that's been the case for the past two years. The Celtics are equipped and ready to be the #2 seed in the east and that seems to be the consensus around the league. With the additions of Lee,Green,Terry and Sullinger many believe this Celtics team to be as deep as it's been in years.There are still some concerns like rebounding and turnovers but I think those will get ironed out as the season wears on. The most important part of this team right now and going forward is 3x All Star Point Guard Rajon Rondo. With Ray Allen gone Rondo has stepped in the center of the Celtic's "Big 3" and his improvements to his game have been well documented. For the Celtics to be abl to beat the defending champs Rondo has to be a top 10 player EVERY NIGHT.The 2nd seed in the East is the Celtics's to lose right now
5.
Can the Bulls compete without Derrick Rose?: Anytime a player goes down with an injury it's an awful sight but last year it was different. When Rose grabbed his knee and layed on the floor you could see and hear the Bulls fans and their sheer disappointment. I think I can speak for most fans of other teams in saying that we all felt bad Rose. Rose is one of the most humble and hard working players the league has,he also happens to be one of the best. Going in to the offseason many people specualted on what the Bulls would do as they were in such a tough place money wise. They broke up the "Bench Mob" which for the past 2 years had been one of the best group of backups in the league.They acquired Kirk Hinrich and "spark plug" Nate Robinson to try and fill the gaping void left by Rose. For the Bulls to actually have a shot at making the playoffs their defense (which has been one of the best in league since Thibs was hired) can't falter. Offensively they're going to have issues creating shots for themselves but if they keep up with their vaunted defense this team could sneak in as an 8th seed and cause some trouble.
6.
Can the Clippers finally step out of the Lakers shadow?: Since the dawn of time the Lakers have dominated Basketball in Los Angeles but for the first time in years it seems like the Clippers can finally get out of the proverbial "little brother" role. The Clippers were very busy in adding major depth to this roster. Jamal Crawford,Grant Hill and Lamar Odom. All three of those players will make major contributions once the season rolls around. Defensively though they're going to have to rely on the backcourt pressure guys like Eric Bledsoe and Chris Paul can apply to opposing point guards. With no real imposing shot blockers on this team they'll have to rely on perimeter defense.Offensively the sky is the limit for this team with guys. Ultimately I think this team will have difficulty getting stops but will be one of the top 4 teams in the west.
7.
Are the Knicks finally going to live up to their potential?: The Knicks are full of mysteries and questions but the biggest question that has been surrounding them since they acquired Melo in a trade is whether they can live up to their potential. When you really take a good look at this team you realize how flawed they're. Their best two players refuse to do what's necessary to win and are also bad defensive players. You also realize that their top 3 players(Melo,Chandler and Amare) can't even be on the court together. Last year Melo was extremely effective at the power forward position but you can understand why he's so hesitant to play it as he takes more of a pounding playing in the post against bigger opponents. My Ideal starting lineup for NYK looks like this Felton-Shumpert(when healthy)-Novak-Melo-Chandler with Amare coming off the bench. In theory it looks great and when you see the offensive numbers with Melo at the 4 you're even more inclined to love it. With Melo starting at the 4 the Knicks averaged 108 points per 100 possesions compared to 98 with him at the 3. This injury to Amare is the perfect time for Mike Woodson to try out this lineup and when Amare is healthy bring him off the bench. Even though I've been saying this for the past year, the Knicks are too talented to not be a top 4 team in the east.
8.
Can Brooklyn dethrone the Knicks as the best team in New York?: A team that was last in its division last year is being hailed as one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Nets are an interesting team. On paper you look at the lineup and think "Hey, this team could be pretty good!" but then you look at the defensive statistics and see how awful they were on defense you realize that this team is all hype. Last year Brooklyn was 24th in points allowed(99.1), 27th in opponent's FG%(.472) and 29th in opponent's 3pt FG%(.374). Many people bring up that the Nets brought in Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez but neither of those players will make that much of a drastic impact on the defensive end.What surprises me most about the Nets is how people act like Deron Williams will be the savior of this city. This is the same guy who shot 40% last year and led the league in turnovers while playing no defense. Now two of those things(FG% and TOs) may be a product of his surrounding cast but the two years he's been here he has proving he isn't a franchise changing player. At best this team is a 6th seed.
9.
Are the Nuggets a top 4 team in the West?: A team that took the Lakers to the brink of elimination last year is being looked at as one of the more exciting teams in the league. Guys like Ty Lawson,Javale Mcgee,Kenneth Faried and Andre Igoudala are the main reasons for that excitement. Last year this team led the league in points(104.1) and this year while they didn't improve much on offense they added a huge piece on defense. Andre Igoudala is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league and held his opponents to the lowest PER(Player Effieciency Rating) in the league. Much was made over Javale Mcgee's work with Hakeem Olajuwon and many expected him to have a breakout year but with him coming off the bench he can still have a big impact on the game. I expect Denver to hover around that 4 seed but ultimately getting the 5th seed.
10.
Are the Spurs finally too old to compete?: "Are the Spurs too old?" "Can these guys compete in the fast,athletic Western Conference?" Both of those questions are pretty common among NBA fans who doubt the Spur's greatness. I'll even admit last year I was one of those people. Last year the Spurs had a 20 GAME WIN STREAK going into game 3 of the Western Conference. That's pretty good for a team deemed too old to compete for a title. I'll make this short and sweet, As long as Gregg Popvich is the coach of this team they will be able to be a top 4 team in the west.
Eastern Conference Playoff Predictions:
1.Miami Heat(58-64 wins)
2.Boston Celtics(50-55 wins)
3.Indiana Pacers (45-52 wins)
4.New York Knicks(45-52 wins)
5.Atlanta Hawks(44-51 wins)
6.Brooklyn Nets(43-48 wins)
7.Philadelphia 76ers(41-45 wins)
8.Chicago Bulls/Milwaukee Bucks(41-43 wins)
Western Conference Playoff Predictions
1.Oklahoma City Thunder(59-65 wins)
2.Los Angeles Lakers(55-62 wins)
3. Los Angeles Clippers(50-56 wins)
4.San Antonio Spurs(50-55 wins
5.Denver Nuggets(48-54 wins)
6.Memphis Grizzlies(44-46 wins)
7.Dallas Mavericks(40-42 wins)
8.Minnesota Timberwolves(40-41 wins)
